Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation

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"Everything he turns his attention to is done artfully" clients say of Sergio Mercado

Roberto and I periodically ask expert Lisa Ben-Isvy when we want to talk to the very best in design business. Why? We look to design when we want to make sense of a turbulent real estate market. New York's best designers are the tastemakers for the world. They are good listeners and the best of them have an instinctive feel for where the market is going. Theirs is a more collaborative process with their clients than is found in other industries and consequently designers the first to know if clients are feeling optimistic, or anxious, whether people are spending or holding back. Their clients are our clients, and we want to know are their clients focused on Florida or heading back to Connecticut. Are they hiding in the Hamptons or starting projects in New York? Are clients reacting to a turbulent stock market and rising interest rates, or are they feeling good about strong employment and continued strong housing prices? This week we have Sergio Mercado and Jennifer Cohler Mason on the show, both recently featured on the TV show "Design on a Dime"  

     J Cohler Mason Design is a full service design firm creating interior spaces that are contemporary, yet classic and timeless, resulting in the perfect mix for warm and inviting interior spaces.    
​​​​​ Jennifer's approach is highly collaborative, involving not only each client but also an extraordinary group of carefully selected artisans and craftspeople -- including lighting designers, cabinet makers, weavers, painters, upholsterers and others who contribute their well recognized talents to each of Jennifer's unique projects. But it is Jennifer who is intimately involved with each of her firm's design projects down to the last detail. 
    Sergio Mercado     New York City-based Sergio Mercado Design Studio specializes in residential projects and hospitality interiors in broad reaching locations from Manhattan, Connecticut and New Jersey, extending down to Miami and Palm Beach. Critically acclaimed for creating breathtaking spaces that are at the crossroads of contemporary design and timeless comfort, it is the Studio’s mission to curate a personal aesthetic for its clients by employing bespoke color palettes, luxurious textures, and well-cultivated detail elements.
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John Engel - John Engel can be found at http://www.JohnEngel.com.

Roberto Cabrera - Roberto can be found at http://www.RobertoCabrera.com. 

Recent Episodes:

B&B 40: Bob Stefanowski: Critical Issues for Connecticut's Real Estate Economy
B&B 41: Ari Harkov on the NYC & Brooklyn Markets and Running a Top Real Estate Team
B&B 42: Affordable Housing - Who Needs It? w/ Tony Hwang, Ryan Fazio, Scott Hobbs & Francis Pickering
B&B 43: Benjamin Moore's Color Expert & Top Designers Talk Color Trends in Real Estate
B&B 44: Noah Rosenblatt of Urban Digs on the New York Market
B&B 45: Governor Ned Lamont. Conversation on Real Estate & the Connecticut Economy
B&B 46 "Tax The Rich, They Won't Move" A Conversation on Migration and Demographics
B&B 47: "Mexico is Hot" What You Need to Know about this Rising Real Estate Market
B&B 48: Zoom On Q1 Market Report for Real Estate in New York & Connecticut - So Hot
B&B 49: Mike Lubin & Matt Cohen, Top Realtors in New York, on The Post-Covid Market
B&B 50: "Can Housing Keep Rising" A Conversation with Jonathan Miller on Rising Rates

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Where Is the New Normal?

The news is very confusing these days. There are many contradictions. We hear talk of a bubble and runaway housing costs are met with Fed tightening and the end of the stimulus. We know Millenials are starting families, experiencing record-low unemployment and rising wages. And yet record inflation, supply chain problems, rising energy prices and rising commodity prices seem to add a level of uncertainty not seen in our lifetime. Oh, and robots will take our jobs, and we could experience world war. So, we are trying to separate the signal from the noise. This week we talk to a man who has been studying housing prices since founding his firm in 1986. We'll ask him which of those headlines matter most to the real estate market, and which of those factors we can largely ignore.

Can Housing Keep Rising?

4pm Thursday. Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351
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Our guest, Jonathan Miller, Founder of Miller Samuel Inc. provides appraisal services on roughly $5 billion worth of property per year in the New York City metropolitan area.

Mr. Miller is the author of a series of market reports considered the "report of record" covering New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Long Island, Boston, Florida, Southern California, and Aspen. His reports are relied on by the Federal Reserve, the IRS, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the NYC Office of Management and Budget, and others.

Related Headlines:

- "A housing crash is unlikely, but a correction could be around the corner," says Business Insider, and  "talk of a housing bubble has intensified amid surging housing costs...a crash is unlikely" https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crash-unlikely-but-correction-is-probable-2022-5

- "Post Covid, Millennial Buyers Want Larger Homes World Property Journal" and  "Millenials are now in favor of a larger home and home builders are responding" (https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/atlanta-real-estate-news/real-estate-news-national-association-of-home-builders-2022-housing-reports-millennial-housing-preferences-in-2022-jerry-konter-13040.php)

- "U.S. Home Sellers Beginning to Drop Asking Prices," says the World Property Journal and "suggesting that the seller's tight grip on the market is starting to loosen" (https://worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/los-angeles-real-estate-news/real-estate-news-redfin-2022-housing-reports-are-home-prices-beginning-to-decline-in-2022-daryl-fairweather-13054.php)

- "Toronto Home Prices Drop Most in Two Years as Rates Slam Market," says Bloomberg, and  "higher borrowing costs start to bite in what has been one of the world's hottest markets" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/toronto-home-prices-drop-most-in-two-years-as-rates-slam-market)

- "We're Having this Long-Term and Short-Term Transition to Remote Work says UCONN professor Thomas Cooke in our conversation with him on this show regarding why people are content to stay put. (https://www.buzzsprout.com/1444222/10314347-boroughs-burbs-46-tax-the-rich-they-won-t-move-a-conversation-on-migration-and-demographics)

- "Historic Home Affordability Issues Continue in 80 Percent of U.S. Markets," says Monsef Rachid, "up from just 38% of counties in the first quarter of 2021. Houses spiked 16% while wages rose just 7%. The 26.3% of wages to buy a home...highest point since 2008." (https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/irvine/real-estate-news-attom-data-first-quarter-2022-us-home-affordability-report-home-affordability-index-march-2022-rising-home-price-data-for-2022-rick-s-13049.php)

Roberto Cabrera's New York Market R

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Review of the First Quarter Market Report 
New York and Connecticut 

"Sales in Manhattan continued on a tear, setting records for the third straight quarter as the market catches up with the region. The quarter saw the highest number of sales for a first quarter in thirty-three years of tracking. Overall price trend indicators were higher than in the same period before the pandemic. Bidding war market share rose to the highest level in four years for the fourth straight quarter. Co-op median sales price posted significant annual gains for the fifth consecutive quarter and was higher than pre-pandemic levels. Condo sales were up by more than fifty percent annually to reach the most first-quarter sales in fifteen years of tracking. Luxury listing inventory fell annually for the third straight quarter and remained below pre-pandemic levels. The luxury market saw the second-highest market share of bidding wars in five years of tracking. New development price trend indicators continued to remain well below pre-pandemic levels. New development sales were nearly double year-ago levels, the fourth straight quarter of significant annual increases" says Jonathan Miller at https://www.elliman.com/corporate-resources/market-reports.

click here for Brown Harris Stevens Manhattan Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/reports/manhattan_1q22.pdf

scroll down for Brown Harris Stevens Connecticut Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/1Q2022CTMarketReport.pdf

click here for William Pitt Sothebys Fairfield County Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/1Q2022CTMarketReport.pdf

Each Thursday use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351 
Or, binge watch all 48 shows on Youtube. 
Subscribe now: http://bit.ly/399yevL 
or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify


Lower Fairfield County at a Glance:

The market remains hot, even if buyer demand continues to far outpace available inventory. Here are some key first-quarter stats for Lower Fairfield County as a whole:  

1,229 – The number of active houses and condos on the market, a 43% drop from the same time a year ago.  

946 – The number of closed houses, the second-most for the quarter since 2007, although also a 29% decrease from the unprecedented high sales volume of the first quarter of 2021.  

395 – the number of closed condos, the second-highest figure for the quarter since 2006.  

101.2% The percent of the list price houses sold for on average, 2.5% higher than the same time last year and the fourth-straight quarter where the average close-to-list price ratio was over 100%. Condo buyers paid on average 100% of the asking price, the highest close-to-list price ratio for condos for a quarter in the past two decades.  

85 – The average cumulative days on market for closed houses, 26% fewer days than a year ago. The average for condos closings was 74 days, 38% fewer days than the first quarter of 2021.  

$1.45M - The average house sales price for the quarter, up 8% from the first quarter of last year. The average condo sale price increased to $500K, the highest it’s been in at least the past two decades.

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In this episode we'll talk to two of Manhattan's Top Agents: Mike Lubin and
Matthew Cohen. What are they are personally experiencing on the ground?
What's different from last year? How might the rest of the year playout? What
are we not talking about now that we will likely be talking about tomorrow?
With wide ranging factors shaping our collective sentiment, from inflation and
rising interest rates to the war in Ukraine and a languid unraveling of
Covid…how is the market evolving?
Please join us……this will be good !

Market Reports?
Check out Jonathan Miller at https://www.elliman.com/corporate-resources/market-reports.

click here for Brown Harris Stevens Manhattan Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/reports/manhattan_1q22.pdf

scroll down for Brown Harris Stevens Connecticut Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/1Q2022CTMarketReport.pdf

click here for William Pitt Sothebys Fairfield County Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/1Q2022CTMarketReport.pdf

Each Thursday use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351 

Or, binge watch all 48 shows on Youtube. 

Subscribe now: http://bit.ly/399yevL 

or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify

Send us a text

Every Thursday at 4pm Eastern
Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351 
Subscribe now: http://bit.ly/399yevL

What About Mexico?
  
With more than a million expats estimated to live there, Mexico is far and away the most popular destination for North Americans looking to move abroad. But—with so many places to choose from—where in Mexico should you move? It’s a very large country, after all.

Alexandra Demou is the founding owner of Welcome Home Mexico, a relocation and real estate company based in Polanco, CDMX where she currently devotes all of her time. Alexandra is from NYC. She studied Hotel and Hospitality Management in Greece and in New York. She has a Swiss Diploma and a B.S. from New York University.

More than a vacation destination, Mexico is more than beautiful beaches. Join us today in learning what Mexico has to offer.

Polanco is a very desirable neighborhood in Mexico City. Here, world-famous brands and upscale international restaurants line Avenida Presidente Masaryk, the premier shopping avenue at the heart of this prestigious district. Leafy side streets host Spanish Colonial Revival mansions and luxe apartments. To the north, Nuevo Polanco features modern architecture, including the futuristic Museo Soumaya, with its vast Rodin collection, and one of Latin America's largest aquariums.

Questions For Alexandra:

-Tell us about Mexican nationals who are interested in buying in the US? ----Who are they? Where are they looking? How do we appeal to them? 
-Are there any cultural differences in how Mexican buyers consider real estate transactions? 
-Where are the hot spots for Americans who want to buy in Mexico? Why? 
-Is there any place in particular that New Yorkers are looking? 
-How do you get there? What documentation is needed?
-What, if any, are the restrictions on US nationals owning real property in Mexico? 
-How do Americans buy in Mexico? What is the process? Who are the needed advisors? How do folks find them? 
-Yankees love wood houses, especially Colonials. I would not expect to find many saltbox colonials in Mexico. What are the styles we'll encounter in Mexico? What sizes are most liked? What amenities?
-What is the most desirable in location or style? 
-Is it better to be in a resort or gated community? 
-Is it a mostly seasonal market and is that likely to change? Nantucket will always be a summer community, whereas Florida is in transition.
-What are the transfer taxes, the property taxes? Any difference for American versus Mexican owners? 
-How are properties maintained by absentee owners?

Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he was long serving Chairman of the Town Council. Before going into real estate he was the founder of two successful Internet businesses, Paper.com and e-Media (for which he won the  Entrepreneur of the Year Award). John attended New Canaan High School and Davidson College in North Carolina. After graduating, he served as an officer in the U.S. Army during the first Gulf War. He currently lives in New Canaan with his wife Melissa and four children. John Engel produces an easy-to-understand and in-depth monthly Market Report for the 16 towns of lower Fairfiel

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🧧Ari Harkov on the New York City and Brooklyn Markets and How to Run a Top Real Estate Team Here
Most people know him as leader of a top team in the nation, ranked every year since 2014 in the Wall St. Journal's list of "Best Real Estate Agents" and "Top 250 Teams in the USA". They did 217 deals last year totalling $432 million and $70 million of that was in December! (Maybe Ari is taking a rest on a beach this month?)

Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351 
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Ari Harkov, co-founder of the Harkov Lewis Team, on the plan for 2022:

"2021 was a big year for our team. We're planning extensive proactive outreach via direct mail, social media (organic and paid), and signage such as bus shelter ads, to reinforce our 2021 team accomplishments and establish our brand in the marketplace. We're also planning to do proactive outreach to developers with new projects and projects that have been languishing on the market, and to grow the number of landlord accounts for our leasing division with proactive outreach to landlords."

Seven Questions for Ari Harkov:

1. You have ambitious marketing plans in 2022 that include traditional and new-media campaigns. How do you decide where to direct your energy?What has been working and what has not? How are you measuring marketing effectiveness to driving new business? 

2. Clients. Who are your clients and how is that changing? How do you qualify prospects and how do you know when you are talking to someone that they are going to be a good fit?

3. Office Space. The Harkov Lewis team just opened up their own office at 451 West Broadway in SOHO. I want to hear more about this.

4. The 24/7 Clock. You were recently quoted saying, "How quickly and clearly your agent delivers information matters. You were quoted as saying "everyone wants you to respond yesterday." Talk to us about the new reality of the real estate business and setting expectations.

5. Negotiating. In a recent NAR survey 80% of home buyers said negotiation skills are "very important" when choosing an agent. Your team negotiated 217 deals last year in a strong seller's market. Tell us about the negotiation process and buyer frustration.

6. Relationships. “Buying or selling a home is a very intimate transaction,” Harkov says. “You should be working with an agent who you like and trust.” In a market that is seen as increasingly impersonal and transactional, how do you develop a relationship with a client and when does it matter?

7. Team Building. There are 16 members on your team. That takes a great deal of coordination and specialization among members. Your team building is what I admire most about Harkov Lewis. You're on a  panel discussion discussing team building (register: Here) att 11am on Thursday. Can you talk a bit about the challenges of managing such a large team, and the benefits of team-building when it works?

Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he served as the Chairman of the Town Council. In addition to hosting this podcast on the market each week, John Engel produces an easy-to-understand and in-depth monthly market analysis called t

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Affordable Housing - Who Needs It?  Panel w/ Tony Hwang, Ryan Fazio, Scott Hobbs & Francis Pickering
It's a problem everywhere, in the cities and in the suburbs. It's been a challenge for decades but now, in 2022, when inventory is particularly tight and housing costs are rising at unprecedented rates, governments are feeling the pressure to "do something about it". 

Governor Kathy Hochul of New York recently proposed allowing homeowners to transform parts of their residence into a separate living space, similar to an apartment as a way to solve the problem. Her plan was rejected. In Connecticut, developers are taking advantage of 8-30g rules to propose many new affordable housing projects, particularly in New Canaan and Greenwich. Some say 8-30g should be repealed, while others say it's a law that works.    

New legislation is being proposed to require cities and towns to make more affordable housing, while towns say they can solve this locally, and don't want the Hartford dictating policy.

Today we have Connecticut experts who have been studying the issue and hope to gain a greater understanding of current developments and proposals.
 
Our special guests will include:
- Senator Ryan Fazio (Greenwich, New Canaan, Stamford)
- Senator Tony Hwang (Newtown, Easton, Fairfield, Weston, and Westport)
- Francis Pickering from the Western Council of Governments 
- Scott Hobbs from New Canaan's Housing Authority

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Coming Up in March On Boroughs & Burbs:

March 17 - Connecticut's Governor Ned Lamont

We'll talk to the Governor about his vision for Connecticut's future, particularly those things that relate to real estate and housing.

April  - The Arizona Show. Paradise Valley and Scottsdale.

Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate is one of the nation’s most prestigious and successful luxury real estate firms, specializing in Arizona’s most affluent neighborhoods. President Walt Danley has consistently ranked in the top one percent of real estate agents in the United States every single year since 1977 and continually earns the industry’s highest accolades. I am an admirer. I met Walt ten years ago and I still get copies of Walt Danley's luxury magazine and his agents will eventually sell me a second home.  We have Walt and Chief Operating Officer Dub Dellis on the show.

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"Tax the Rich, They Won't Move"
  
Wait, is that even true? 
Join us for a conversation with University of Connecticut Professor Thomas Cooke on demographic trends, American migration and why people are more content than ever to just stay put. 

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“We’re having this long-term and short-term transition to remote work, and people don’t have to move as often,” Thomas Cooke says. “So if you lose your job, and you have a partner and a family and you’re connected to your neighborhood, you can stay where you are and adjust to not have to cut ties with all those things that are important to you.”
 - Thomas Cooke in "What's Next for the Connecticut Real Estate Market?"

Thomas Cooke, PhD is Professor Emeritus of Geography at the University of Connected and a Demographic Consultant focusing on population projections, migration policy, and demographic analysis.

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The 2020 National Movers Study says New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, and California saw the highest proportion of outbound migration.

7 Questions For the Professor:

1. The Importance of Demographics. When a big demographic group (boomers) reach a certain age (18 year old men) their buying habits change. This is the reason that motorcycle sales peaked in the early 70’s. Companies like Honda time these trends correctly and make a fortune. Can you give us a case study or two on the importance of paying attention to demographic trends and where we are in the cycle now? 

2. Millenials. I understand that they represent about 35% of the nation and that since they are turning 30 they are suddenly interested in settling down, buying their first house. Let’s talk about the Millenials. How old are they, how many of them are there, and what do they buy? 

3. Boomers. I understand that they represent about 35% of the country and they have all the money. I am under the impression that while TV advertisers are not targeting them as a group Realtors definitely are. Are they buying second homes or are they the ones downsizing, selling the beach house to a GenX’er and staying put. Are they moving to southern states and tax-free jurisdictions to preserve wealth? Describe where the Boomers are in their journey and why? 

4. Moving/Staying Put. You said that people are not moving as often, “this long-term and short-term transition to remote work and people don’t have to move as often”. Talk to us about whether this is a long-term or short-term phenomenon. 

5. Urban/Suburban. They used to say “when New York City sneezes then Connecticut catches cold”. The Connecticut economy has traditionally been dependent on the health of the New York economy. Covid seemed to change that, where the suburbs were the beneficiaries of urban disruption, particularly New York’s. 

6. Schools. You do a lot of work on population projections for towns and schools. In Connecticut the schools have been shrinking. Why? (And where are these kids going?) My town, New Canaan, Connecticut, is known to have good schools and our real estate values are dependent on investing properly in education. We depend a great deal during budget season on getting the number right and predicting accurately the size of each class. Why is it so hard to predict and will towns like Darien and New Canaan continue to defy the experts and grow forever?

7. Tax the Rich. Massachusetts recently proposed to tax the rich. Advocates for the tax say that only a fraction of the rich will move out of state as a result. Is there any evidence that this is true and that the tax is a net winner? What is the effect on Connecticut if both Massach