Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation

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The Pendulum Shifts & Timing is Everything

Since there are NO deals in the Hamptons, focus on Manhattan before the pendulum fully swings back to sellers. Timing becomes one of the most crucial factors. Everybody always asks, “How’s the market?” Because Manhattan is segmented into so many micro-markets, a Tribeca loft versus a midtown high-rise condo versus an Upper West Side townhouse or an Upper East Side studio etc….this question is too vague and has a multiplicity of answers. Generally though, the market’s on fire; demand is outpacing supply. Sellers have become more realistic, which has become an invitation for buyers to join the party. Buyers too have realized there is middle ground; that 50% off sale they anticipated never happened. This engagement between both parties is infectious and has resulted in deals….many deals. Deal volume in February was up over 30% as compared to February 2020 (which if you remember was a pre-covid volume). Activity has been most robust in the lower price points; 70+% of all deals are occurring below $2M and 85% below $3M. The luxury market, loosely defined as the top 5% of all inventory (approx. $5M and up), which had been sluggish, is catching up. We are seeing numbers which reflect far busier times like in 2015 & 2016. 

 Whereas it is still a buyers’ market, the pendulum has shifted direction. Like never before, virtually every metric is in the buyer’s favor. One of my industry colleagues, a head of one of the major firms, said, “If you're not a buyer in THIS market, you are simply not a buyer.” It is my opinion, that the past 8 months have been the single greatest buying opportunity in Manhattan, that I have witnessed in my 23 year career. Never have so many metrics lined up for buyers, all at the same time. Let’s compare where we are now to some of the other great historical buying opportunities during that time. Note: if you are not a buyer, please disregard what I have to say, as I am not pressuring you to buy; however, for those who do want to buy, you will find this interesting. These great buying opportunities most often follow catastrophic events. Let’s take the 4-5 months post-Sept 11th and the 12 months following the collapse of Lehman Bros. in 2008/9. Whereas those were incredible opportunities, consider that in 2001, inventory was still very lean, so the supply-side of “the supply & demand principle” was still tight. And consider that interest rates were 6-6.5%. Right now we are sub 3%. I want you to look at the table in the "Mortgages & Interest Rates" section of this newsletter, to truly understand the impact of even 1 percentage point in interest rates. It's shocking. In post-Lehman Bros. 2008/9 inventory and interest rates were less of an issue than in 2001, as there was more inventory but interest rates were still at 5-6%. The biggest factor then was liquidity. There was no money; people struggled to get financing.

For buyers today, not only is inventory ample (meaning choices), sentiment on the seller’s side has been poor (meaning negotiability) and interest rates are near all-time lows, 3% or less for a 30 year jumbo loan. However, the pendulum on virtually all three of these metrics is starting to change course. Although there is 10% more overall inventory than last year at this time, that number is contracting. Again, not because apartments aren’t coming on the market, but because deal volume is outpacing that incoming supply; it’s essentially musical chairs for Manhattan apartments. While prices have not yet increased, it is precisely this deal activity which is beginning to give sellers a bit more resolve (meaning they are becoming less and less negotiable). And the big one is interest rates; they are slowly rising. This factor will affect the whole marketplace, as it reduces purchasing power. So if you are a buyer, the ge

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This week The Real Deal reports that the "Manhattan luxury market sees another strong week"

Architectural Digest says "New York is Officially the World's Wealthiest City for Real Estate" 

Mansion Global says, "Manhattan's Luxury Market Notches Strongest 3-Week Streak in 6 Years"

And the New York Post said, "Luxury apartments holding steady in Manhattan, folding in Queens"

Is the luxury market back, or is it simply heading in the right direction?

This week we ask two of the top agents in the Manhattan luxury market to unpack these headlines and tell us what's really going on. If anybody is going to give it to us straight, its these two agents. 

You've met Louise Philips Forbes on the show twice before. We love "Weze's" high energy and her broad knowledge of luxury properties from the West Village to the Upper East Side. She runs the #17 team in New York, is currently listing 24 properties including two over $10 million and has another 6 currently under contract. I guarantee if we say something outrageous or just wrong then "Weze" will call us out on it.

Daniella Schlisser is a bona-fide super-producer, currently ranked #52 among all New York agents, with 16 luxury properties including two over $10 million and has another 2 under contract. She's fluent in 5 languages (but we're going to stick to English this week)  Daniella, can you say "New York is back" five different ways?

Daniella G. Schlisser 
For the last 20 years, Daniella Schlisser has been recognized as an industry expert representing some of the finest properties in New York City luxury real estate. Migrating her business to Brown Harris Stevens in 2014, Daniella continues to enhance her reputation for success, consistently earning recognitions such as "Most Deals of the Month" and ranking within the top 15 agents at the firm. Daniella's breadth of industry knowledge and sophisticated style of practice have earned her media attention both locally in The New York Times, New York Post, New York Daily News, CBS, The Real Deal and internationally on television networks such as Austria's ORF and Germany's RTL. A meticulous, high-energy professional, Daniella has earned the accolades, referrals and repeat business that have carved her success. Her extensive experience covering primary, pied-a-terre and investment transactions as well as new development sales representing developers, individual sellers and purchasers alike has proven invaluable to all her clients. She is a personable, multi-faceted individual who relates well with everyone she meets, from longtime Manhattanites to out-of-towners and sophisticated worldwide investors. 

Louise Philips Forbes 
For over three decades, Louise Phillips Forbes has been an industry leader in New York City’s residential real estate market. With career sales exceeding $4 billion, she is considered one of the elite Power Brokers in Manhattan. Louise was named the Residential Agent of the Year by REBNY (the Real Estate Board of New York) in 2020 for her consistent achievements and leadership within the industry. A multi-time winner of Halstead Real Estate’s (now Brown Harris Stevens) esteemed Broker-of-the-Year award, Louise has also been acknowledged many times as the #1 listing broker companywide and currently leads one of the firm’s top sales teams. She has developed a significant following among developers, buyers, and sellers throughout Manhattan. From the Upper West Side and Upper East Side to the West Village, Tribeca and Wall Street, she proudly serves prominent New Yorkers. Louise’s experience in both luxury residential sales and in development projects—over 30 to date—has equipped her with the unique ability to fully understand clients’ needs, navigate fluctuations in the market, and negotiate complicated deals ranging from

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This Thursday we talk to Techrin Hijazi, fresh off both sides of a $10 million Star Island sale followed by her $14 million sale of a Miami penthouse. Then, we get a taste of L.A. with  Gary Gold, a legend in the Los Angeles market who recently set a record in Brentwood at $25.8 million, sold the Playboy mansion for $100 million, and then broke his own record with Chartwell, the Beverly Hillbillies mansion, for $150 million.

Techrin Hijazi – an accomplished, tenacious, and award-winning Broker Associate – is back in Miami and bringing her real estate prowess to Brown Harris Stevens! Aligning herself with BHS’ Jeff Cohen, Toni Schrager and under the leadership of Vivian Dimond, Techrin utilizes her relationship with these real estate visionaries to further connect buyers and sellers globally. Techrin, pronounced "Tishreen," specializes in residential waterfront real estate with a concentration in commercial investments. Recognized for her chiseled negotiation skills, unwavering discretion and high tech, soft touch approach to client care, she is a real estate powerhouse that has made a name for herself. Entering the real estate market as an investor in 1994, she had the intuitiveness to find value in unknown, highly undervalued communities. Today, these properties – on Edgewater Drive and in the Santa Maria Building – are thriving in some of the most appreciated real estate markets. That same insight, coupled with a contagious passion for South Florida real estate and unyielding drive for client success, has become the cornerstone for her thriving career. A Realtor since 2003, she began her career with Sotheby's International Realty, brokering hundreds of luxury and waterfront properties in the most exclusive communities in Miami including Indian Creek, Star Island, and Gables Estates. Nationally recognized for her lead role in TLC's "Million Dollar Agents,"Techrin’s exposure and pipeline of high net worth clients soared following the show’s success. Incredibly passionate and persistent about real estate, coupled with a flair for art appreciation and consultation thanks to her husband and renowned Art Gallery owner, Techrin Hijazi continues to lead the luxury real estate market and is the go-to Broker for buyers, sellers and investors alike.

Gary Gold is a marquee name in luxury real estate and his sale of The Playboy Mansion sets a record as the first residence to sell over $100,000,000 in Los Angeles. This achievement was eclipsed by Gary’s recent sale of the famed Chartwell Estate for $150,000,000. Gary is also one of its most successful trend setting agents. He’s an internationally recognized expert known for his creative use of technology, marketing and publicity to sell some of the finest homes in the world. Gary is further distinguished by the rare ability to secure high net worth, qualified buyers from digital marketing. This success, year after year, continues to produce a steady stream of buyers from not only the Los Angeles area, but throughout North and South America, Europe, and Asia. Gary has sold thousands of estates and luxury properties over the course of his career. High-end developers have consistently relied on Gary’s broad expertise on projects ranging from luxury condominium developments to major estates. He is a sought after speaker, panelist and educator at industry conferences. Gary has been cited as an expert for publications and broadcasts that include CNN, Fortune, Barron’s, Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Access Hollywood, CBS Evening News, e! Entertainment Television and The London Telegraph. Gary Gold began his career in real estate over 30 years ago and has been a top producer with Hilton & Hyland since its inception. 

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Please join us this week for "The Creative Show" where we talk to Christina Roughan and Whitney Kraus, two designers who approach the business of design from completely opposite places.

Whitney Kraus designs spaces for a future owners she might never meet. She is part of the new development team planning multi-family projects. Whitney has to predict how design is going to set it apart when it finally comes to market. Her clients build new buildings or renovate old ones and rely on Whitney to know what the buyers of those apartments will want years in advance. 

Christina Roughan in contrast, is about high-end custom design. She knows her clients and designs for them across a great range of properties. She is equally comfortable designing for her client's country estates in The Hamptons, Telluride and Connecticut, apartments and townhouses in NY, LA, and London and personal luxury yachts in Italy as well as high-end corporate and hospitality properties.

Christina Roughan - Roughan (pronounced ROWAN) is the international design firm of acclaimed interior designer Christina S. Roughan. Designing since 1994, Christina’s vast experience and keen eye has enabled her to create warm, sophisticated interiors that are timeless and tailored while remaining friendly and approachable. Christina believes that interiors are to be lived in and reflect the people who reside in the space. “Every interior should be functional while remaining aesthetically purposeful and elegant.” Roughan’s design portfolio is known for deft combinations of texture and subtle color while combining modern traditional accents to create livable, crisp interiors. She has designed interiors throughout the world and her client range is as diverse as their locations. With a reputation for listening carefully to the needs of clients, attention to detail, and discretion, Roughan has become a favorite of international celebrities as well as design editors at Interior Design magazine, House Beautiful, Elle Décor, CT Cottages & Gardens and AtHome Magazine to name a few. Christina lives with her husband and two daughters in a 200-year-old house in Weston, CT, which is, no surprise, in a constant state of renovation.

Whitney Kraus - Director of Architecture & Planning, BHS Development Marketing 
Whitney is responsible for guiding the design vision and execution for all developments. Combining architecture and design insights with project management expertise, she works directly with developers and their design teams to offer project specific recommendations and advise throughout the design and marketing phases. In her role, Whitney recommends potential collaborations with architects and designers, assists in feasibility, zoning, and massing studies; and helps guide direction on unit mix, floorplan layouts, finishes, amenity programming and sales gallery layouts.  Whitney is a registered architect in New York and holds a U.S. Green Building Council LEED-AP certification. She joined the BHSDM team after serving as Project Architect at Selldorf Architects, where she worked on residential developments, high-end private residences, retail, and commercial buildings. She was responsible for development and delivery of drawings in all design phases, daily management of architectural team members, and coordination with consultants and contractors. She oversaw projects for the William Macklowe Company, CBSK Ironstate, Gagosian Gallery, The Robert Rauschenberg Foundation, Hauser & Wirth, Yves Saint Lauren, and Aman Resorts. Whitney has a Master of Architecture from Yale University and Bachelor of Science in Architecture from the University of Michigan. Originally from North Carolina, Whitney currently resides in Gramercy Park.

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New Development: Steve Kliegerman & Arnold Karp

Please join us this week for "New Development" where we talk to Steve Kliegerman and Arnold Karp, two men who have been focused on new development in New York City and Connecticut for the last 20 years. 

The crisis may be nearing an end, but the lasting effect is that it has caused every segment of society to re-prioritize how we think of a home. Today, we are going to explore how  developers are responding to the changing landscape.

Stephen Kliegerman has been the head of New Development for 20 years, advising New York's biggest developers on what to build, where to build it and then marketing those properties throughout the 5 boroughs.

Arnold Karp is now New Canaan's largest taxpayer since he now owns 109 homes in the downtown. He wants to sell 40 of them and rent 59 others. Why? What went into the decision to build, what changed over the last 4 years of development, and where is the market heading next? Every town has an Arnold Karp looking to build the next generation of homes and if you want to be part of that conversation, then join us today.

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About Boroughs & Burbs:

John Engel in Connecticut and Roberto Cabrera in New York. host a weekly wide-ranging zoom conversation with real estate experts from around our area. We are joined by two special guests guests each week. The audience is a big part of the back and forth, and is made up of realtors, buyers and sellers throughout the tri-state area.

We will talk about:
- what the top agents in New York and Connecticut are seeing and hearing 
- which neighborhoods and towns are poised to take off, which ones could crash 
- which firms are getting it done, and which ones might be stuck in neutral 
- where top agents are finding new business as the landscape shifts and we see new imbalance in the market 
- Pouring water on some of the myths and misinformation we’re reading (you heard New York is dead? Fuhgeddaboudit) 
- builders, property managers, insurers, mortgage brokers, coop boards and anybody whose lives depend on the deals we are making

You should join this meeting if:

- You are a real estate agent looking to pick up new business and good ideas from top experts 

- You are thinking about moving to New York City in order to take advantage of recent price drops

- You are thinking about moving out of New York City and want the straight skinny on Connecticut, New Jersey, Long Island and Westchester suburbs

- Your career depends on the real estate market and connecting with top realtors

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Please join us this week for Market Conditions in New York and New Jersey where we talk to Greg Heym and Eugene Cordano about the effects of the pandemic and the election on the New York and New Jersey real estate markets.

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Greg Heym - Chief Economist for Brown Harris Stevens
Greg was our first guest on episode 1 last May and again on episode 8 in October. In May we debated the nature of disruption to the real estate market. Would this be like 911? Would it be like the financial crisis? How long before we could get back to normal? By October there was newfound optimism based on the vaccines being approved, but plenty of anxiety related to the election. Now, with the election behind us, we need an update from Greg Heym on the state of the market in New York. Sure, I read his twice-a-week newsletter "The Line" where he talks about jobless claims and interest rates and their impact on the market, but this is my chance, this is YOUR chance to ask him what it really means for our markets, the LUXURY markets in both New York and the suburbs. 

Eugene Cordano - VP and Executive Director of Sales, New Jersey
This is our first look at New Jersey on Boroughs & Burbs, a topic that is way overdue. Roberto and I realized that we know very little about the New Jersey market and probably need to devote an entire show to New Jersey to properly understand it, but we'll start this week by asking Gene Cordero, a 25-year real estate veteran, some of the big questions:

1. What is the current state of luxury real estate in New Jersey post-election?

2. You have two offices, Montclair and Hoboken to service all of Essex and Hudson counties. Where exactly is the luxury market in New Jersey and what makes those areas particularly valuable? 

3. What has changed for New Jersey residents interested in selling their homes in the last year since the pandemic? How much of a shortage of inventory are you experiencing and what is it going to take for the market to be more balanced?

4. What are New Yorkers looking for and are they finding it?

5. Is there a fear that the music is going to stop and demand will subside?

6. This is an election year in New Jersey. What are some of the issues on the ballot this year? Is the upcoming election affecting the market or is it too soon to tell?

About Boroughs & Burbs:

We host a weekly wide-ranging zoom conversation with real estate experts from around our area. We are joined by various guests each week, hosted by John Engel in Connecticut and Roberto Cabrera in New York.

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This week we talk to Lisa Lippman and Curtis Jackson, two of the top agents in New York (and she's #14 in the nation) to get at the truth behind what just happened in 2020 and where is it heading.

The New York Times just wrote about "The Great Collapse of 2020" saying that "rent in Manhattan had fallen to a level not seen since 2010, and hundreds of the must vulnerable renters faced the prospect of eviction..." comparing the situation to the Great Recession, "when prices fell nearly 10 percent"

The Real Deal wrote in "A Garbage Year, The State of Manhattan's Luxury Resi Market in 2020" that contracts declined by 31% and "though the market later rallied, it wasn't enough to get close to the 935 contracts signed in 2019"

Meanwhile, Fortune writes that "New York's luxury real estate market should enter 2021 with confidence" and Inman wrote 4 hours ago "this city is poised to become the hottest real estate market of 2021"

What can we believe? We ask the experts in the market.

Lisa Lippman is one of the The Wall Street Journal top 20 agents in the country (every year) and has sold $43 million of real estate in New York since June when the market opened back up. Curtis Jackson has been named by New York Magazine as one of the top 20 brokers in Manhattan.

Lisa Lippman has done 10 deals totaling almost $42,000,000 since the NYC real estate market re-opened on June 22nd. Ranked #1 at Brown Harris Stevens most recently and for the last four years in a row — 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 and consistently in the top 50 Brokers in the USA, she has been a top producing broker for over 23 years.

Our second guest, Curtis Jackson specializes in the Upper East Side and Upper West Side and also has deep familiarity with Downtown's many exciting established and evolving neighborhoods. He believes New York City offers enduring value as a result of its strength as a globally recognized center of culture and commerce, and enjoys helping his clients make the most of its dynamic real estate market. Since Curtis joined Brown Harris Stevens in 2004, the firm has named him Listing Broker Of The Year for the Upper East Side Office five times and has named him Broker of the Year for the Upper East Side Office six times, most recently in 2015. In addition, New York Magazine has named him one of the Top 20 Brokers in Manhattan. 

About Boroughs & Burbs:

Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he is currently the Chairman of the Town Council. John also brings an insight into internet-based marketing that is unsurpassed. Before going into real estate he was the founder of two successful internet businesses, Paper.com and e-Media for which he won the prestigious Entrepreneur of the Year Award. John spent his earliest years in Stuyvesant Town (before it was cool) and finished his growing up in New Canaan before attending Davidson College in North Carolina. After graduating, he served as an officer in the U.S. Army and spent some time leading a military intelligence platoon on the front lines of the first Gulf War. He currently lives in New Canaan with his wife Melissa and four children. In addition to hosting this podcast on the market each week, John Engel produces an easy-to-understand and in-dept

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The Value of High Style

The Value of High Style is where we talk to a top designer and a top art collector, two men who make their living knowing the difference between good and great, as we try and understand the relationship of great design with real estate.  

John Barman has been honored as one of the AD100 by Architectural Digest, one of “The City’s Best 100 Architects and Designers” by New York Magazine, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, Esquire, Interior Design, Traditional Home, and W, among other publications. His renowned clientele includes Wynton Marsalis, George Stephanopoulos and Alexandra Wentworth, Leonard and Allison Stern, Bryant Gumbel, Stone Phillips, Neil Simon, and Larry Silverstein. Barman was born and raised in New York City, and graduated from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania before turning to interior design and founding his eponymous firm.

Our second guest, Richard Grossman, is best known as the President of Brown Harris Stevens where he manages all of the regional offices. What most people don't know about Richard is that he is a collector and expert in the subjects of midcentury modern architecture, contemporary and midcentury modern furniture and contemporary art at the very highest levels. We've all heard of the mythical Ferrari in the barn stories. Richard lives that myth. He and his husband Adam discovered a long- abandoned and crumbling apartment in the famed midcentury-modern Butterfield House, purchased it and undertook an extensive 2-year restoration. He has promised to give us a glimpse of the apartment during the show. What I want to know from Richard is where is the line between doing it for the passion versus making a wise investment? What is the value of a name brand architect or a name-brand designer? How has that changed? We want to understand Richard's process of choosing architects and designers, what went right, and what can we learn from his experience. Lastly, I want to point out a recent story in the Wall Street Journal that quotes Richard entitled, Custom Art is Helping High-End Homeowners Paint a Clearer Picture where he is quoted as saying, “Art by a well-known artist can also lend a cachet to the property, which is particularly important in higher-end listings . . . Walking into a home with high ceilings and a 9-foot high Christopher Wool painting in the foyer is very dramatic—and it certainly says someo