Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation

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Bob Stefanowski Gets Real with Realtors
 
Connecticut's housing market is way out of balance from Greenwich to Bridgeport. We had a very frank, LIVE zoom conversation with quite possibly the next Governor of Connecticut on the critical issues that affect our ability to be competitive, and ultimately play out in our housing market. We list 10 questions below we'll ask Bob on tax policy, transportation, school-choice, crime, state-vs-local control & how he would have handled the pandemic response. 
 
Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351 
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The 2018 election between Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski, who is again seeking his party’s nomination for governor, was close — 49.4 percent to 46.2 percent. For a state seen as solidly blue in national elections, Connecticut has had Republican governors in 16 of the last 27 years. Note, Connecticut's last three governors all lost an election before they won. So, thinking this might be the next leader of Connecticut we wanted to talk to Bob about the following:
 
1. You only narrowly lost four years ago. Recently you said, “I’m going to be a much better candidate this time.” What did you mean? 

2. Connecticut has some of the highest cost of living in the country. You want to build a “better, more affordable Connecticut”. How can Connecticut do a better job with affordability generally, and making housing more affordable in particular? 

3. Some say Governor Lamont went too far with mask mandates (and 7 extensions of executive powers). Was this necessary? How would you have led the State through the pandemic? 

4. The commute to New York is not as important to homebuyers as it was a few years ago. Many more people work at least part of the time from home, easing the congestion on i-95 and the Merritt. Can it continue and what does this mean for the future of Connecticut? 

5. Realtors will tell you that this shift away from commute-based work is benefitting Connecticut's real estate industry. People can consider homes further away from Manhattan and they considered a lot more towns in their home search. How can Connecticut capitalize on the new normal?

6. For the moment we have a budget surplus. Governor Lamont says he wants to use the surplus to temporarily lower personal property taxes. What would be your plan? 

7. Energy – Connecticut is paying some of the highest electricity rates in the country. What can we do to solve our energy problem? 

8. Schools – Any Realtor will tell you that Fairfield County schools are one of our most important assets. We draw homebuyers out of New York because we invest in great schools and schools in turn support our property values. Talk about the role of education in Connecticut’s future. 

9. What can we do to attract new business to Connecticut? Is there a particular industry Connecticut should be courting? 

10. Infrastructure. What kinds of infrastructure investment must we make for Connecticut to compete in the 21st century?
 
Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan. In addition to hosting this podcast on the market each week, John Engel produces an easy-to-understand and in-depth monthly market analysis called the Market Report for the 16 towns of

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"The Price of New in New York"

Manhattan real estate hasn’t just recovered from the pandemic slump, it’s doing better than in the pre-COVID era. This week on the show we talk to the President of new development for Brown Harris Stevens in New York and top economist Laura Tomana on the crazy pace of 2021 and whether it can be sustained into 2022 and beyond.

Stephen Kliegerman expects momentum to continue as Wall Street bonuses roll in and the wealthy get wealthier.

Laura Tomana says buyers look to Dumbo for more gracious floor plans and unblocked city and river views.

In Manhattan new-development contracts tripled in 2021. 1,723 newly developed units went into contract, a 233% increase over the previous year. 

The Upper East Side saw the most substantial boom, with 63 deals inked in new developments in Q3 2021, compared to 21 in 2020 and just five in 2019. 

Chelsea-Flatiron District area (between West 14th and West 34th Streets), is on the upswing where 28 deals closed in Q3 2021, up from nine in 2020 and just two in 2019. 

“The high-end Brooklyn market also stood out, with record sales and cementing new luxury product expectations in an outer borough,” said Stephen Kliegerman. 

Brooklyn new development contracts this year smashed recent years’ totals with larger, more expensive homes leading the charge. New development contracts in 2021 totaled $1.54 billion, a 150 percent increase from last year and 77 percent jump from 2019. 

898 new development contracts were signed in Brooklyn. The average home signed was 1,220 square feet, a five-year high, and price-per-square-foot climbed to $1,680, up 43 percent year over year. 22 percent of contracts were for units with three bedrooms or more. 

Not all neighborhoods fared the same. Dumbo, Brooklyn Heights and Downtown Brooklyn posted 87 contracts in the fourth quarter, more than double the amount signed in the same time span last year. But contract activity declined in Prospect Heights, Park Slope, Flatbush and Prospect Park South. While contract activity slowed in the fourth quarter, that drop is a response to insufficient supply, not demand, according to Laura Tomana, Vice President of research and market analytics at Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing.

Laura Tomana manages all macro and micro levels of new development research and data trends, provides real-time market intelligence to developers, and is involved in the earliest stages of pre-development. Overseeing all market research and analysis for a variety of projects in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, and New Jersey, Laura consults on all aspect of pre-development planning including pricing, floor plan, finish and amenity recommendations to maximize sales velocity and sellout for each project. Her advisory has been key to the success of many important new developments throughout her career, including The Cortland (555 West 22nd Street), One Wall Street, 200 Amsterdam, 99 Hudson, Rose Hill (30 East 29th Street), 42 Crosby Street, and The Fitzroy (514 West 24th Street), Laura’s research has proven an essential decision-making tool for best-in-class global and local developers, including Related Companies, China Overseas America, JDS, Brookfield Properties, and more.

Since 2000, Stephen Kliegerman has been a member of the senior executive team at Terra Holdings holding several key leadership positions. He has overseen more than $15 billion in sales, representing over 10,000 units in the New York City area.  With more than 30 years of experience in New York real estate, Stephen is recognized as a trailblazer in the brokerage community, known for cultivating genuine partnership, integrity and tenured market knowledge. He is widely quoted in globally recognized media as a market authority including; The

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In Fairfield County, Connecticut the builders are betting big on LUXURY condos. The biggest and best of them are Selling For Record Prices, Topping out at $2500 per square foot.  Who is Buying, Why and Will The Party Continue?

The Mill Westport, by Coastal Construction, are 30 luxury residences starting at $1,655,000.

Bankside House, along the Saugatuck River in Westport, is being built by David Waldman

For the first time Ultra-Luxury  condominiums are selling across Fairfield County for more than $1000 per square foot. They range from townhouse to apartment designs and they're going up in Greenwich, Westport, New Canaan, Darien and Rowayton. Let's ask the experts who are building, listing and selling the ultra-luxury product:

Rita Kirby and Bonnie Sztam from WPSIR will discuss their $3+ million sales on Forest St. and at The Gramercy in New Canaan.

Bettina Hegel from Brown Harris Stevens willl talk about $3 million+ sales at The Vue in New Canaan.

Kim Harizman from Compass is representing David Waldman's modern waterfront bet on the Saugatuck River in Westport, Bankside House

Joe Feinleib from Coastal Construction will be on hand to speak about the luxury condos he's building at The Mill Westport.

Paul Stone & Arnold Karp can explain why they chose certain amenities at The Vue in New Canaan (but did not build a pool)

Who is the buyer? What is the profile of the high-end condo buyer in Fairfield County?

What are the features, location, amenities that these buyers require?

Is this a long-term trend or response to Covid?

What have been the development challenges? Are some towns more difficult?

Rita Kirby pf WPSIR
Bonnie Sztam of WPSIR
Kim Harizman of Compass
Arnold Karp of The Vue
David Waldman of Bankside House
Bettina Hegel of Brown Harris Stevens
Rita Kirby pf WPSIR
Joe Feinlieb of The Mill Westport

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Thursday, January 27 from 4:00-5:00pm

Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. I was originally born in Richmond, Virginia and grew up in Maryland, just one mile south of the Mason Dixon line. After graduating with a degree in Mathematical Economics from Hampden-Sydney College, the 10th oldest school in the country, I spent 5 years in Washington, DC working as a financial consultant. I also studied at The National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts and I’m a former actor who once moonlighted as a stand-up comedian.

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan. Before going into real estate he was the founder of two successful internet businesses, Paper.com and e-Media for which he won the prestigious Entrepreneur of the Year Award. John grew up in New Canaan before attending Davidson College. After graduating, he served as an officer in the U.S. Army and spent some time leading a military intelligence platoon on the front lines of the first Gulf War. He currently lives in New Canaan with his wife Melissa and four children. In addition to hosting this podcast on the market each week, John Engel produces an easy-to-understand and in-depth monthly market analysis called the

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Episode #37 featuring Scott Hobbs, Tony Fox II and Greg Heym

Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351
 Or, binge watch all 37 shows on Youtube.
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We are at a critical juncture in the history of New York, the moment after which New York will remake itself once again. In the final days of the pandemic big bets are being made on the future of office space, retail, work from home and the importance of commuting.

Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. I was originally born in Richmond, Virginia and grew up in Maryland, just one mile south of the Mason Dixon line. After graduating with a degree in Mathematical Economics from Hampden-Sydney College, the 10th oldest school in the country, I spent 5 years in Washington, DC working as a financial consultant. I also studied at The National Conservatory of Dramatic Arts and I’m a former actor who once moonlighted as a stand-up comedian. Many years ago, I authored APPLE PIE - The Real Ingredients for Buying and Selling Your Slice. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he is currently the Chairman of the Town Council. John also brings an insight into internet-based marketing that is unsurpassed. Before going into real estate he was the founder of two successful internet businesses, Paper.com and e-Media for which he won the prestigious Entrepreneur of the Year Award. John spent his earliest years in Stuyvesant Town (before it was cool) and finished his growing up in New Canaan before attending Davidson College in North Carolina. After graduating, he served as an officer in the U.S. Army and spent some time leading a military intelligence platoon on the front lines of the first Gulf War. He currently lives in New Canaan with his wife Melissa and four children. In addition to hosting this podcast on the market each week, John Engel produces an easy-to-understand and in-depth monthly market analysis called the Market Report for the 16 towns of lower Fairfield County. You can find it here.

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State of the Market: Greg Heym & Kevin Kovesci

We'll talk to Greg Heym and Kevin Kovesci, our experts in New York about the effect of the pandemic and the election on the New York and suburban real estate markets. 

These two know where the market is moving and so we expect to have a spirited discussion on:

-Where is the buying opportunity in New York right now?
-Interest rate movements. Where are they headed in 2022 and beyond and will they have an impact on price or is there less correlation than most people assume?
-The lack of inventory. Are there just too many Millenials chasing too few houses and apartments or is the current boom in real estate a function of the money supply? 
-New development trends. (and is anything new also affordable? Is New York affordable for the average Joe?)
-Need for second homes. Is this what is driving the suburban market, and is it a function of the pandemic?
-Decreasing importance of the daily commute. Is this overstated, and what has been the effect on prices?
-Which neighborhoods are hot? Is the UWS back entirely?
-Foreign buyers. Are they back and what are they buying?
-New York sports teams. (Greg always has something to say on this. What do NY sports tell us about New York optimism and is the optimism reflected in the markets?
-Unemployment effect on the market. The latest from The Line
-Stock market effect on the NY market. How do bonuses look this year?What will they do to the Spring market?
-Is NYC fulfilling its promise of being the new tech center?
-New York City's current effect on the suburban markets?
-Coop vs. condo trends. Are coops being forced to loosen up?

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Greg Heym - Chief Economist for Brown Harris Stevens
Greg was our first guest on episode 1 last May and again on episode 8 in October. In May we debated the nature of disruption to the real estate market. Would this be like 911? Would it be like the financial crisis? How long before we could get back to normal? By October there was newfound optimism based on the vaccines being approved, but plenty of anxiety related to the election. Now, with the election behind us we need an update from Greg Heym on the state of the market in New York. 

Kevin Kovesci - Senior EVP and Managing Director of Sales, West Side
Well-known for his keen understanding of the Manhattan market, Kevin is responsible for managing the highly successful Upper West side office. Previously, Kevin managed Brown Harris Stevens' Tribeca and Village offices where he was the driving force in their exponential growth. Kevin Kovesci was formerly Vice President of Coldwell Banker Hunt Kennedy where he headed their Downtown office. His background also includes over a decade of experience as a top-producing broker and sales agent selling primarily on the Upper West Side. He earned his Bachelor of Arts from Bowling Green State University, and holds a Master of Science in Real Estate from New York University. 

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About Boroughs & Burbs:

Our weekly wide-ranging zoom conversation with real estate experts from around our area. Hosted by John Engel in Connecticut and Roberto Cabrera in New York.

Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he is currently the Chairman of the Town Coun

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Today We Talk About REALLY BIG RANCHES in Montana Selling For Record Prices. Who is Buying Up Ranchland? Why? and Will The Party Continue?

The first thing you need to know about Montana is it's a "No Disclosure" state. That means there is no public record of what the big real estate parcels are selling for. The only way to get that information is to know someone in the business, somebody like Kim Bennett who has created her own personal database over the last 30 years of appraisals and sales. That is why this is such a special show. We have two of the insiders of the Montana real estate industry, the only way to learn about transactions and trends in this up-and-coming real estate market. Our second guest is Keith Gertsen, head of the U.S. Hedge Fund Practice at Citibank who can speak to the trend as a  ranch owner and investor. 

The second thing you need to know is THIS BOOM FEELS DIFFERENT. Montana has been discovered before. The first time was in 1991 when we were introduced to Montana in the movie "A River Runs Through It" and the second time in 1998 with The Horse Whisperer. There was a bit of a run up in prices in 2007 before the financial crisis, but when COVID hit people from all 50 States arrived, inventory fell and prices Rose. 

Kim Bennett has been appraising farms, ranches, and rural recreational properties in Montana and Wyoming for over 30 years and she has been selling rural properties in Montana for the past 20 years. 

Keith Gertsen, ranch owner and investor, currently working on the acquisition of a 26,000 acre cattle and recreational ranch. He started his career as a Wall Street trader and investor, but his interest in beef cattle and breeding coupled with his love of the outdoors and hunting and fishing took him West. Over the last two decades he's bought and sold over 50 large parcels of ranch land starting with a 20,000 acre property in North Dakota before buying his current ranch interests in Montana. He's currently working on the acquisition of a 26,000 acre cattle and recreational ranch in central Montana. He and Kim are working on that assemblage now. 

We talk to Kim and Keith about:

- What is considered a ranch? Is there a minimum size?
- Does it have to function to be considered a "ranch"?
- Who is buying up ranch land and how is that changing?
- How does the market think about cattle per acre, grass quality, mineral rights, water rights, accessibility to an airport or highway or train, and even valuing dinosaur bones?
- How has ranch land appreciated over time? (spoiler alert, 8.8% avg over the last 20 years)
- How has COVID affected the market for rural spaces now that more people are able to work remotely?

Finally, why are we talking about Montana ranches on a show that has been about New York City real estate and the surrounding suburbs? If you haven't seen Montana license plates in the Hamptons, in Greenwich, and in Palm Beach then you aren't paying attention. Montana is the new Nantucket, and we want to understand why? Is this a fad, or is Montana the newest suburb of New York?

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Roberto Cabrera - With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. 

John Engel - John Engel is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the 2019 Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he has been the Chairman of the Town Council for the

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We all think we know a thing or two about pricing. Every buyer, seller, and the real estate agent has an opinion about what the price "should be" based on a combination of our experience, research, and intuition. We think that because we've seen a thing or two we can be trusted. Can we? How much do we really know? Where do we get our facts and what subconscious biases are at work? How much confidence should we have?

Let's face it, pricing is hard and we all make expensive mistakes.

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📑📑 This week on Boroughs & Burbs we are talking to two acknowledged experts on pricing:  Dr. Rob Docters teaches Pricing at Yale University and is the author of over 21 papers on the subject at researchgate.net. He is joined by Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, arguably the best real estate appraiser in New York City, called "the demigod of New York Real Estate Stats" and "an incredible real estate analyst, a true Rockstar on NYC metro luxury markets.” We want to know what we don't know about pricing.

We wanted to know about the "Buyer Trust Map" taken from a recent article by Dr. Rob Docters. In the article, Dr. Docters applies recent findings on cognition and trust to business decisions. This suggests that trust is a poor basis for decision-making, e.g.: purchase decisions unless the decision-maker knows how to look for greedy (undesirable) partner attributes. 

Season 2, Episode 5: Dr. with Rob Docters and Jonathan Miller.

🙎🏻‍♂️ Jonathan Miller. Established in 1986, Miller Samuel is an independently owned and operated firm that provides appraisal and consulting services on property in New York City as well as Westchester County, Fairfield County, Long Island, The Hamptons, and North Fork for Douglas Elliman Real Estate. With a certified or licensed appraisal staff that averages approximately sixteen years of experience, Miller Samuel is known for its neutral valuation perspective and professionalism, providing their clients with benchmark insights to enable them to make more informed decisions. Miller Samuel authors more than 100 market reports a year on several U.S. sales and rental markets to better provide transparency to consumers and real estate professionals.

🙎🏻‍♂️ Dr. Rob Docters. Problem Solver, Strategic Initiatives Leader, Strategy Executive and now, the Yale Professor of Pricing. Rob was formerly Head of Market Innovation and Development at Bloomberg, LP focused on the vertical markets. His operating experience includes running consulting practices at E&Y and Abbey, LLP, and being shadow CMO of Telcel at startup (now worth $35B), and Market Manager of a $250M/year segment at Verizon. For the last five years he has been a lecturer in Management at Yale University School of Management, teaching MGT 838 Pricing.

⏩⏩ Join us. every THURSDAY 4pm to 5pm EST. Use the Meeting ID: 921 3593 1351 
⏩⏩ https://zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYsdOyhrTopH9UTQYYoMajmM0ZKBhNrtn8a

🎬 Watch the whole first season on Youtube, https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLn0GRA-Kf96kZyqcZligAocCKCaNoZP8q

 Watch Our Second Season:
🎬 Boroughs & Burbs (S2:E1) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40b-T5Y_wN0&t=84s
🎬 Boroughs & Burbs (S2:E2) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZS3qJeWHbE&t=97s
🎬 Boroughs & Burbs (S2:E3) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sA7D6gZLBI&t=18s


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Townhouses are considered by many Manhattanites to be “beachfront property.” Townhouses are rare and offer a unique experience. They offer privacy and control of one’s environment, but are there downsides? At the beginning of the last decade, the market for houses was booming, but by 2015 they had peaked, and deflation of their value began...why? Are they back? Houses in Manhattan only make up a small portion of the housing stock; conversely, in Brooklyn they are plentiful. What makes these markets different? How are the houses themselves different? No two seem alike. What’s the difference between a townhouse, a brownstone, and a mansion? The taxes from one house to another seems arbitrary, Why? We will discuss these topics and many more. 

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🙎🏻‍♂️ Terry Naini is a seasoned professional marketer, consultant, and sales broker in Brooklyn & Manhattan. She is often sought after for her breadth of knowledge of the marketplace as well as her strategic approach. Terry's prior training in business management as well as molecular biology have sharpened her ability to think critically and enabled her to effectively advise her clients. "The quiet storm. "Terry's the broker you thought couldn't exist - warm, open, knowledgeable and straight forward." - Adam Freed & Ken Ohashi "Much like a family physician, Terry is our family broker." - Laurie Simmons "The closer." - Glen & Tanya Luchford Terry lives in Downtown Brooklyn with her husband, their two girls, and lovely dog.

🙎🏻‍♂️ David Kornmeier. With over 18 years of experience at Brown Harris Stevens, David Kornmeier is a consistent top producer, ranked multiple times among the top 10 brokers in Manhattan and top 50 nationwide by The Wall Street Journal/ Real Trends. David has established himself as a creative and meticulous broker, closing many complex transactions all over Manhattan. A majority of David’s business comes from repeat clients and referrals. His strong referral network is one of the reasons that David was the youngest top producer in the history of the firm. Sellers and buyers appreciate David’s value-added approach. 

David’s recent notable sales include: 
 - A $47,000,000 Upper West Side Condominium 
 - A $32,000,000 Greenwich Village Townhouse represented the all-time highest price for a townhome in downtown Manhattan. 
 - A $28,600,000 Boutique Hotel in Midtown 
 - A $25,000,000 West Village Townhouse that set an all-time price per foot record of $4,821 per foot for a townhouse in downtown Manhattan. This property is also the 2nd highest price per foot ever achieved for a townhouse in all of New York City. 
 - A $19,500,000 Fifth Avenue Condominium 
 - A $14,500,000 Upper West Side Townhouse is the record sale for the highest-priced Upper West Side townhouse that was not on a Central Park block.

🧑🏻‍💼 Season 2 of Boroughs and Burbs: 3 episodes beginning Oct 7, 2021

🎬 e1: "How's the Market Right Now?" (Lisa Lippman and Rob Johnson) 
🎬 e2: "Am I A Brand?" (Matt Leone and Chris Halstead) 

🧑🏻‍💼 Season 1 of Boroughs and Burbs: 28 episodes total ending May 20, 2021

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