Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation

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This week we have only ONE GUEST, the finest real estate mind in New York, Chief Economist Greg Heym. Today, we think we can pin Greg down on exactly what he sees in his crystal ball.

10 Questions we asked ask New York's top economist: 

1.  Consumer confidence rose in September (101.8) and fell a smidge in October (100.9) Heading into a "second wave" how strong is confidence now and how strong a predictor is consumer confidence in our Spring market?

2.  After 4 straight months of growth sales of new single-family homes fell 3.5% in September. (But, sales are 32% higher than a year ago and 24% higher than January's pre-coronavirus high.) Why are you predicting continued strong growth?

3.  Initial claims for unemployment fell to 787,000, the lowest level since March 14th, and continuing claims fell by 1 million to 8.37 million, down by 4.37 million from a month ago. New York's claims fell by 9,902 to 56,483. What does this tell you about the timing of the New York City real estate recovery?

4.  Existing home sales rose 9.4% in September and 20.9% higher than a year ago. Median sales prices rose 14.8% to an all-time high and inventory has reached a record low of 2.7 months inventory. Homebuilders are ramping up production and permits hit a 13-year high in September. Why is this sustainable? Why aren't you calling this a bubble?

5.  Mortgages. CNBC reports today to forget fixed rate mortgages, go for the ARM given that the long term interest rate trend is downward and the average length of ownership is 8.5 years. Do you agree with this advice? 

6.  Dr. Fauci says even with a vaccine, masks and social distancing will continue until 2022. Talk to us about the impact to New York's economy given the importance of the entertainment industry, hospitality, sports teams and as an airline and cruise ship hub. 

7.  Talk to us about the pied-a-terre tax. It's back on the table. Isn't this just affecting rich people, a way to get them to pay their fair share to balance a $30 billion deficit in New York? What are the long-term implications of this tax on the New York economy?

8.  New York's MTA is weighing service cuts as they finance $3 billion in debt and wait for a $12 billion federal bailout. What are your predictions for New York and the national economy if the bailout does not come through?

9.  Parts of Connecticut have become some of the hottest real estate markets in the country during the COVID-19 pandemic. Is the Connecticut recovery dependent on New York's struggles or will they recover together? 

10.  What is going to be the immediate effect of a Presidential election on the New York real estate market? Are we guaranteed growth after the uncertainty passes?

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Last month (April 2020) 30,000 people opened the Market Report. One reader took offense that I used the word "exodus" to describe the current imbalance in the markets. Exodus is not debatable. The question is whether the trend is temporary during the pandemic or something more permanent. In Connecticut we are seeing a healthy number of transactions despite a sharp decrease in the levels of inventory. 12 of the 16 markets we are tracking improved despite the April lockdown, despite a massive contraction in inventory. I wanted an opportunity to challenge some of what we're reading in the press. So, I hosted a panel discussion among experts to talk about this "Boroughs to the Burbs" phenomenon. I was  joined by:

- Greg Heym, Chief Economist at Terra Holdings; member of the New York City Advisory Panel 

- Steve Kliegerman, superagent, and head of  Development Marketing for Brown Harris Stevens 

- Jayme Stevenson, 5-term top elected official for the Town of Darien, nominee for Lt Governor

- Scott Hobbs, super-luxury custom builder in NYC, the Hamptons, Rhode Island & Connecticut

- Arnold Karp, developer selling 100 luxury apartments and 12 homes across Fairfield County

I wanted to ask my experts how the pandemic has affected their outlook on the market. I asked Jayme Stevenson about changing priorities and her plans to keep Darien on top in the State. I asked Arnold Karp whether he's still bullish about his $80 million bet on luxury apartments in New Canaan or will he begin developing his lakefront lots. I asked Scott Hobbs whether there's anybody still living in their fabulous penthouse apartments or are they refocusing their energy and money out of the city? I asked chief economist Greg Heym about Manhattan's 22% drop in inventory and if this time is different from recession of 2009. And, finally I asked Steve Kliegerman whether the bloom is off the rose, whether his clients, the city's top developers, are pulling back in response to the crisis.

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The conversation is hosted by John Engel in Connecticut and Roberto Cabrera in New York.

We are excited to share with you our weekly wide-ranging zoom conversation with real estate experts from around our area.  

We want to know what the top agents in New York and Connecticut are seeing and hearing. 

We want to know which neighborhoods and towns are poised to take off.

We want to know where top agents are finding new business as the landscape shifts.

We want to pour water on some of the myths and misinformation we’re reading.

This week we are joined by special guests: 

Ari Harkov
Ari Harkov leads the Harkov Lewis Team in Greenwich Village. Consistently ranked in the top 250 teams in the US by the Wall Street Journal and REAL Trends, Ari represents developers, individual buyers and sellers, major landlords and property owners, and tenants in the sale and lease of properties throughout NYC. One of New York City’s elite power brokers, Ari is well respected and known as one of the preeminent experts in the residential real estate market in NYC.

Eileen Hanford
Spanning four decades from one coast to another, Eileen Hanford has received multiple "Agent of the Year" awards and boasts the top #1 agent spot in Darien year after year. This year Eileen is crushing it. She's tells me she's never been busier listing and selling in Darien and last month she proved it, turning in more sales than ever before in a career going back over 30 years. Tune in and ask her how she's adjusting to the new market conditions. 

Join the Zoom meeting live each week Thursdays at 4pm Eastern:
https://zoom.us/j/2032474700
Meeting ID: 203 247 47

Send us a text

The conversation is hosted by John Engel in Connecticut and Roberto Cabrera in New York.

We are excited to share with you our weekly wide-ranging zoom conversation with real estate experts from around our area.  

We want to know what the top agents in New York and Connecticut are seeing and hearing. 

We want to know which neighborhoods and towns are poised to take off.

We want to know where top agents are finding new business as the landscape shifts.

We want to pour water on some of the myths and misinformation we’re reading.

This week we are joined by special guests: 

Louise Philips Forbes

Louise is New York’s $4 billion dollar power broker. Yes, that’s billion with a “B”.  She's tells me she's never been busier listing and selling in New York City. Tune in and ask her how she's adjusting to the new market conditions. 

Scott Hobbs

Scott Hobbs builds distinctive, custom homes and apartments for a discerning clientele throughout Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Rhode Island. How are tastes changing?

Join the Zoom meeting live each week Thursdays at 4pm Eastern:

https://zoom.us/j/2032474700
Meeting ID: 203 247 4700
One tap mobile +19292056099,,2032474700# US (New York)