Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation

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What is Downsizing? Downsizing and the Small House Movement.
📝 "The ongoing pandemic has changed the way we live. Many have left the big city, are working from home, and not going out as much. We have all heard about how our homes have to be healthier, more efficient, more flexible, and perhaps a bit bigger to accommodate all of this. Nobody follows these trends more closely than author Sheri Koones, who has written many books on home design, with the latest being "Bigger Than Tiny, Smaller Than Average."
 _____These homes are not as small as the ones in her last book, "Downsize: Living Large in a Small House," which was aimed at a different market at a different time. Can these houses even be considered small, with many running around 1,800 square feet? But the average new American home in 2019 was 2,623 square feet so these are definitely smaller than average, even if a lot bigger than tiny.

The small houses—all 2,000 square feet or less—presented in "Downsize" are owned by people who have made a conscious decision to downsize from a larger home to a smaller home—or who just decided to build small in the first place.

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👩🏻‍💼 Sheri Koones is a widely respected author who helps readers understand that getting the house of their dreams can be done in an ecologically responsible way.
 Her books explore the variety, beauty, and eco-friendly benefits of prefab homes. Her books have evolved from just profiling the variety of prefab methods in her first Prefabulous book to showing how energy-efficient and sustainable houses can be with Prefabulous + Almost Off the Grid: Your Path to Building an Energy-Independent Home and Prefabulous + Sustainable: Building and Customizing an Affordable, Energy Efficient Home. Prefabulous World: Energy-Efficient and Sustainable Homes Around the Globe explored the beauty and efficiency of houses around the world, from France to South Africa and Japan to Australia.
She has won the prestigious Gold in the Robert Bruss Real Estate Book Awards from NAREE in 2013, 2011, and 2008.

No matter whether you call it downsizing or rightsizing, the trend toward living in a small home is here to stay. In "Downsize: Living Large in a Small House" (Taunton Press, October 29, 2019, $34.95), best-selling author Sheri Koones presents 33 exceptional houses that show how small can be comfortable, practical, energy-efficient—and beautiful.

🧑🏻‍💻 John Engel - John Engel found at http://www.JohnEngel.com. He is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he has been Chairman of the Town Council and is currently a member of the Planning & Zoning Commission. John also brings an insight into internet-based marketing that is unsurpassed. After graduating, he served as an officer in the U.S. Army and spent some time leading a military intelligence platoon on the front lines of the first Gulf War. He currently lives in New Canaan with his wife Melissa and four children. 

🧑🏻‍💻 Roberto Cabrera - Roberto can be found at http://www.RobertoCabrera.com. With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. the sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single-family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side for over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 years. 

#RealEstateDownsizing #ThinkingOfDownsizing  #SheriKoones #johnengel #robertocabrera #ctbestrealestateagent #ctrealtor #realestateinvesting #

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Ordinarily in September New Yorkers rivalry with Boston is heating up. Not this year. With the Red Sox 16 games back on the Yankees and neither the Patriots, Jets or Giants contending it might be time to focus on real estate and snag that second home on Nantucket you've been thinking about. Boston seems to be on pace to set new records this year despite fears of a national recession. Why? The biggest reason seems to be lack of real estate inventory in a market with strong job growth and continued strong job prospects. Boston may have experienced many of the same problems as New York City during the pandemic with the loss of live entertainment, restaurant, and tourism dollars but like New York is surging past pre-pandemic levels and attracting major new industries such as technology. I think one advantage Boston has always had is the number of universities in the area and the concentration of advanced degrees.

What are the Boston real estate market predictions for 2022 and 2023? With steady job growth, huge gains in home equity, and a large population of millennials now in their peak homebuying years, it is predicted that the demand will stay strong, but sales are likely to be down from historic highs while price appreciation should fall to more modest levels.
Since the last decade (May 2012), the typical home value in Boston-Cambridge-Newton Metro has appreciated by nearly 91.4% (Zillow Home Value Index). Boston has several key advantages: low percentage price growth in 2021 relative to other metros, average loan-to-value rate of only 79 percent, low share of flipped homes and loss of population last year. The Boston housing market is very competitive. Homes in Boston receive 3 offers on average and sell in around 21 days. The average sale price of a home in Boston was $760K last month, up 7.0% since last year. The average sale price per square foot in Boston is $612, down 5.6% since last year.

Lisa Rainis - Manages Boston, the Suburbs and the Islands
Carl Lindvall - of The Holly Parker Team on Nantucket
Jesse Greenstein  - in Boston & Martha's Vineyard
Craig Brody - sells Boston, the Suburbs, Nantucket & Cape Cod
Johnny Hatam - sells the big, fun Yankee Candle listing in Leverett for $23 million

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Boroughs & Burbs Past Episodes & Watch the full playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLn0GRA-Kf96kZyqcZligAocCKCaNoZP8q

B&B 40: BobStefanowski: Critical Issues for Connecticut's Real Estate Economy
B&B 41: Ari Harkov on the NYC & Brooklyn Markets and Running a Top Team
B&B 42: Affordable Housing - Who Needs It? w/ Tony Hwang, Ryan Fazio, Scott Hobbs & Francis Pickering
B&B 43: Benjamin Moore's Color Expert & Top Designers Talk Color Trends
B&B 44: Noah Rosenblatt of Urban Digs on the New York Market
B&B 45: Governor NedLamont. Conversation on Real Estate & the Connecticut Economy
B&B 46 "Tax The Rich, They Won't Move" Migration and Demographics
B&B 47: "Mexico is Hot" 
B&B 48: Zoom On Q1 Market Report for Real Estate in New York & Connecticut - So Hot
B&B 49: Mike Lubin & Matt Cohen on The Post-Covid Market
B&B 50: "Can Housing Keep Rising" Jonathan Miller on Rising Rates
B&B 51: "Designing on a Dime" Sergio Mercado & Jennifer Cohler Mason on Design
B&B 52: The Martha's Vineyard Show with Britt Bast and Cheri Mason
B&B 53: The Vero Beach Show with Sally Daley and Bob McNally
B&B 54:  "Bracing for An Economic Hurricane" with Stephen Lascher & David Perry
B&B 55: Thinking of Downsizing? Small Houses with Sheri Koones
B&B 56: How Will Skyrocketing Oil Prices Affect Real Estate? Eric Meyer and Ira Joseph
B&B 57: California Dreamin' and the Market out West. I

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"Bracing for an Economic Hurricane"
   
     "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself," said Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorganChase onstage at a conference just yesterday. What does this all mean? What does it mean for the luxury real estate market? What does it mean for the not-so-luxury real estate market? At what point do rising rates have a material effect on market performance and valuations? Will banks change their lending standards as a result? What canbanks do to continue the flow of home buying?
     What is the true relationship between interest rates, housing prices and the supply of housing? What we'd like to know is how are major banks responding to the change, and will the window of opportunity be closing for some buyers?
     In the 1980's countries such as Japan and Sweden introduced the 100-year intergenerational mortgage in which the borrower pays little more than the interest payments each month. While still rare in America, is it possible that this kind of mortgage could be introduced as an answer to the rising crisis of affordability?
    Co-hosts Roberto Cabrera and John Engel will be asking the regional sales managers of two major lenders these questions.

Stephen Lascher of Wells Fargo Bank Steve is a Sales Manager and a founding member of the Wells Fargo Private Mortgage Banking team in New York. Joining Wells Fargo in 2003 Stephen quickly became a member of the organizations elite President's Club having ranked in the top 1% nationally for the past 16 years. Specializing in new development end-loan financing, condominiums, co-ops and multi-family properties, he has extensive experience with borrowers and developers of all backgrounds and property types – having successfully funded over $2.5 billion in residential mortgage transactions throughout his career. Prior to joining Wells Fargo, Stephen was an associate in the Equity Research Departments at both UBS Warburg and Morgan Stanley.

David Perry of USBank     David M. Perry was recently selected by USBank Home Mortgage to lead the bank's Connecticut office. Perry, who has more than 25 years of financial and industry experience, will lead a team of eight mortgage professionals looking to increase the company's market share in the Connecticut region. Prior to working with USBank, Perry was a market manager with Wells Fargo and with PNC Mortgage. Perry is fluent in Spanish and can assist Spanish-speaking customers as part of his new role.

John Engel can be found at http://www.JohnEngel.com. He is a consistently top-producing agent in Fairfield County, Connecticut. John recently won the Realtor of the Year Award in New Canaan where he has been Chairman of the Town Council and is currently a member of the Planning & Zoning Commission.

Roberto Cabrera can be found at http://www.RobertoCabrera.com. With 20 years of experience, I have been recognized throughout the industry for achieving outstanding results: Ranked nationally by REAL Trends as one of "America's Best Real Estate Agents” for avg. sales price of $4.350M. Sold a single family Townhouse faster than any other on the Upper West Side over $10M. I live with my wife and daughter on the Upper West Side, the neighborhood I have called home for the past 23 y

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The Vero Beach Show
      Known as the "Hamptons of the South" and as Florida's "Treasure Coast" Vero Beach is a 28-mile island connected by three bridges to the mainland. About 90 minutes southeast of Orlando, and 90 minutes north of Palm Beach, Vero Beach is served by its own airport with 26 direct flights a day (most importantly for New Yorkers to Newark and Westchester County).  There are 15,220 people across 7,505 households of which 16% have children at home. The largest employer is Piper Aircraft in a city known mainly for tourism. And, as of 2021 the city hosts 14 private golf clubs and is the historic home of the Los Angeles Dodgers, "Historic Dodgertown".
     So, why Vero Beach? That's what we want to know. This week we dig in for an in-depth conversation with Vero Beach's top realtor Sally Daley of The Daley Group and top builder Bob McNally of Palm Coast Development to understand the market, where it's been during the covid years and where it's heading.
     As Palm Beach prices skyrocket (average $3.3 million, $1600 per foot) is the same true in Vero Beach ($1.2 million, $504 per foot) or is this a secret waiting to be discovered?
    Are values in Vero Beach one big hurricane away from "correcting" or has building technology improved to the point where we can say these luxury homes can handle it?
    At the end of 2021, some economists were calling the Florida market overheated and overvalued by 40%. But other economists are saying that covid changed everything, that the new work-from-anywhere economy means Florida is no longer only for tourism. Where does Vero Beach see itself in the future?

Sally Daley
     Known for marketing savvy, boundless energy, and an ability to merge creativity with analytics, Sally is consistently among Indian River County’s top producers and has represented buyers, developers, and sellers of properties on the river, ocean, and in between at virtually all price points. In her 15-year real estate career, she has amassed sales well in excess of five hundred and fifteen million dollars. 
     Her dedication to research and data analytics, relentless following of the markets, and her encyclopedic knowledge of the real estate market and Indian River County make her a truly unequaled advocate for her clients. Sally’s data-backed and research-based approach stand-alone in Indian River County.
     Prior to her career in real estate, Sally owned a public relations + marketing firm just north of New York City. Her firm provided services for high-profile clients like Citibank, Hyatt Hotels, Champion Paper, Nine West Shoes, and The National Multiple Sclerosis Society, among others. 
 

     Bob McNally is the CEO at Palm Coast Development. His company is unique in that it combines architecture, interior decors, and construction as the main functions of a full-service integrated business. It has built significant landmark projects and high-end residences in Vero Beach and Stuart, Florida over the past 15 years.
     The McNallys hail from Morris County, New Jersey where Robert was the CEO of a major construction firm that was involved in the acquisition, planning, and construction of major communities involving well over 5,600 homes and 1,000,000 square feet of Class A office space.
     Having been involved in over a billion dollars worth of construction projects the company decided to form an Architecture and Interiors studio so that it could concentrate on custom projects; homes, small communities, mixed-use projects, condominiums, and Class A commercial projects.

John Engel - John Engel can be found at http://www.JohnEngel.com.
Scott Hobbs - Scott can be found at http://www.HobbsInc.com. 

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The Martha's Vineyard Show
Martha's Vineyard has a reputation for being a popular and affluent summer community with fabulous beaches and authentic New England charm. Who is coming to Martha's Vineyard, and why? And how has that changed? As New York area realtors we want to know why Martha's Vineyard is not like other affluent beachy communities like the Hamptons or its island neighbors Nantucket and Block Island.
- Martha's Vineyard is 96 square miles, compared to 70 in East Hampton (including east to Montauk). Block Island is only 9.7 square miles (and 40% of that is protected land conservation.) Nantucket island is 47 square miles.
- 17,000 people call the Vineyard home, but the populations swells to 200,000 in-season. Compare that to 28,000 in East Hampton, and 14,000 in Nantucket swelling to 50,000.
- the median listing on Nantucket is $3.9 million, and so much more affordable on the Vineyard at only $1.9 million in Edgartown and $1.3 million in Vineyard Haven. In East Hampton the median listing is $2.3 million.
- in 1974 Steven Spielberg filmed the movie Jaws on Martha's Vineyard and the island now celebrates with an annual "Jawsfest"
- there are 19 beaches on the island. What percentage of them are public versus private?
​​​​​​​- President Bill Clinton, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton have been coming to Martha's Vineyard since the 1990's.
- President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama used to vacation here at Blue Heron Farm and decided to settle here permanently when they purchased 30 acres in 2019.

​​​​​​​Who are the people who come for the summer, and what do they find there in summer?
How does the community change in the off-season?
How has the pandemic changed the community, and what is predicted?
Tell us about the luxury and exclusive neighborhoods of Martha's Vineyard, and do they attract anyone besides ex-Presidents?

4pm every Thursday.
Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351Or, binge watch all 50 shows on Youtube. Subscribe now: http://bit.ly/399yevL

Britt Bast of MVLandVest in Edgartown     
Britt has been a Real Estate Professional since 2010 and was thoroughly prepared for a career in the Real Estate Industry, having a mother who was a Realtor and a Father who was a residential Home Builder, giving her a well-rounded and extensive pool of experience to pull from within her own family.   Britt is native to Fairfield County, CT and splits her time between there and her office in Edgartown, Martha's Vineyard.

Cheri Mason of MVLandVest     Cheri is a Connecticut native that came to the Island of Martha’s Vineyard permanently in 2008. Her corporate sales career started in the mobile computing industry working with Fortune 500 companies throughout the East Coast. Her relationship skills, professionalism and sales ability brought her to LandVest to pursue real estate with the Island’s most reputable firm.

John Engel - John Engel can be found at http://www.JohnEngel.com
Roberto Cabrera - Roberto can be found at http://www.RobertoCabrera.com

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"Everything he turns his attention to is done artfully" clients say of Sergio Mercado

Roberto and I periodically ask expert Lisa Ben-Isvy when we want to talk to the very best in design business. Why? We look to design when we want to make sense of a turbulent real estate market. New York's best designers are the tastemakers for the world. They are good listeners and the best of them have an instinctive feel for where the market is going. Theirs is a more collaborative process with their clients than is found in other industries and consequently designers the first to know if clients are feeling optimistic, or anxious, whether people are spending or holding back. Their clients are our clients, and we want to know are their clients focused on Florida or heading back to Connecticut. Are they hiding in the Hamptons or starting projects in New York? Are clients reacting to a turbulent stock market and rising interest rates, or are they feeling good about strong employment and continued strong housing prices? This week we have Sergio Mercado and Jennifer Cohler Mason on the show, both recently featured on the TV show "Design on a Dime"  

     J Cohler Mason Design is a full service design firm creating interior spaces that are contemporary, yet classic and timeless, resulting in the perfect mix for warm and inviting interior spaces.    
​​​​​ Jennifer's approach is highly collaborative, involving not only each client but also an extraordinary group of carefully selected artisans and craftspeople -- including lighting designers, cabinet makers, weavers, painters, upholsterers and others who contribute their well recognized talents to each of Jennifer's unique projects. But it is Jennifer who is intimately involved with each of her firm's design projects down to the last detail. 
    Sergio Mercado     New York City-based Sergio Mercado Design Studio specializes in residential projects and hospitality interiors in broad reaching locations from Manhattan, Connecticut and New Jersey, extending down to Miami and Palm Beach. Critically acclaimed for creating breathtaking spaces that are at the crossroads of contemporary design and timeless comfort, it is the Studio’s mission to curate a personal aesthetic for its clients by employing bespoke color palettes, luxurious textures, and well-cultivated detail elements.
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John Engel - John Engel can be found at http://www.JohnEngel.com.

Roberto Cabrera - Roberto can be found at http://www.RobertoCabrera.com. 

Recent Episodes:

B&B 40: Bob Stefanowski: Critical Issues for Connecticut's Real Estate Economy
B&B 41: Ari Harkov on the NYC & Brooklyn Markets and Running a Top Real Estate Team
B&B 42: Affordable Housing - Who Needs It? w/ Tony Hwang, Ryan Fazio, Scott Hobbs & Francis Pickering
B&B 43: Benjamin Moore's Color Expert & Top Designers Talk Color Trends in Real Estate
B&B 44: Noah Rosenblatt of Urban Digs on the New York Market
B&B 45: Governor Ned Lamont. Conversation on Real Estate & the Connecticut Economy
B&B 46 "Tax The Rich, They Won't Move" A Conversation on Migration and Demographics
B&B 47: "Mexico is Hot" What You Need to Know about this Rising Real Estate Market
B&B 48: Zoom On Q1 Market Report for Real Estate in New York & Connecticut - So Hot
B&B 49: Mike Lubin & Matt Cohen, Top Realtors in New York, on The Post-Covid Market
B&B 50: "Can Housing Keep Rising" A Conversation with Jonathan Miller on Rising Rates

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Where Is the New Normal?

The news is very confusing these days. There are many contradictions. We hear talk of a bubble and runaway housing costs are met with Fed tightening and the end of the stimulus. We know Millenials are starting families, experiencing record-low unemployment and rising wages. And yet record inflation, supply chain problems, rising energy prices and rising commodity prices seem to add a level of uncertainty not seen in our lifetime. Oh, and robots will take our jobs, and we could experience world war. So, we are trying to separate the signal from the noise. This week we talk to a man who has been studying housing prices since founding his firm in 1986. We'll ask him which of those headlines matter most to the real estate market, and which of those factors we can largely ignore.

Can Housing Keep Rising?

4pm Thursday. Use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351
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Our guest, Jonathan Miller, Founder of Miller Samuel Inc. provides appraisal services on roughly $5 billion worth of property per year in the New York City metropolitan area.

Mr. Miller is the author of a series of market reports considered the "report of record" covering New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Long Island, Boston, Florida, Southern California, and Aspen. His reports are relied on by the Federal Reserve, the IRS, the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, the NYC Office of Management and Budget, and others.

Related Headlines:

- "A housing crash is unlikely, but a correction could be around the corner," says Business Insider, and  "talk of a housing bubble has intensified amid surging housing costs...a crash is unlikely" https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crash-unlikely-but-correction-is-probable-2022-5

- "Post Covid, Millennial Buyers Want Larger Homes World Property Journal" and  "Millenials are now in favor of a larger home and home builders are responding" (https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/atlanta-real-estate-news/real-estate-news-national-association-of-home-builders-2022-housing-reports-millennial-housing-preferences-in-2022-jerry-konter-13040.php)

- "U.S. Home Sellers Beginning to Drop Asking Prices," says the World Property Journal and "suggesting that the seller's tight grip on the market is starting to loosen" (https://worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/los-angeles-real-estate-news/real-estate-news-redfin-2022-housing-reports-are-home-prices-beginning-to-decline-in-2022-daryl-fairweather-13054.php)

- "Toronto Home Prices Drop Most in Two Years as Rates Slam Market," says Bloomberg, and  "higher borrowing costs start to bite in what has been one of the world's hottest markets" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-04/toronto-home-prices-drop-most-in-two-years-as-rates-slam-market)

- "We're Having this Long-Term and Short-Term Transition to Remote Work says UCONN professor Thomas Cooke in our conversation with him on this show regarding why people are content to stay put. (https://www.buzzsprout.com/1444222/10314347-boroughs-burbs-46-tax-the-rich-they-won-t-move-a-conversation-on-migration-and-demographics)

- "Historic Home Affordability Issues Continue in 80 Percent of U.S. Markets," says Monsef Rachid, "up from just 38% of counties in the first quarter of 2021. Houses spiked 16% while wages rose just 7%. The 26.3% of wages to buy a home...highest point since 2008." (https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united-states/irvine/real-estate-news-attom-data-first-quarter-2022-us-home-affordability-report-home-affordability-index-march-2022-rising-home-price-data-for-2022-rick-s-13049.php)

Roberto Cabrera's New York Market R

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Review of the First Quarter Market Report 
New York and Connecticut 

"Sales in Manhattan continued on a tear, setting records for the third straight quarter as the market catches up with the region. The quarter saw the highest number of sales for a first quarter in thirty-three years of tracking. Overall price trend indicators were higher than in the same period before the pandemic. Bidding war market share rose to the highest level in four years for the fourth straight quarter. Co-op median sales price posted significant annual gains for the fifth consecutive quarter and was higher than pre-pandemic levels. Condo sales were up by more than fifty percent annually to reach the most first-quarter sales in fifteen years of tracking. Luxury listing inventory fell annually for the third straight quarter and remained below pre-pandemic levels. The luxury market saw the second-highest market share of bidding wars in five years of tracking. New development price trend indicators continued to remain well below pre-pandemic levels. New development sales were nearly double year-ago levels, the fourth straight quarter of significant annual increases" says Jonathan Miller at https://www.elliman.com/corporate-resources/market-reports.

click here for Brown Harris Stevens Manhattan Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/reports/manhattan_1q22.pdf

scroll down for Brown Harris Stevens Connecticut Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/1Q2022CTMarketReport.pdf

click here for William Pitt Sothebys Fairfield County Report
https://media.bhsusa.com/pdf/1Q2022CTMarketReport.pdf

Each Thursday use the Meeting ID: http://zoom.us/j/92135931351 
Or, binge watch all 48 shows on Youtube. 
Subscribe now: http://bit.ly/399yevL 
or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify


Lower Fairfield County at a Glance:

The market remains hot, even if buyer demand continues to far outpace available inventory. Here are some key first-quarter stats for Lower Fairfield County as a whole:  

1,229 – The number of active houses and condos on the market, a 43% drop from the same time a year ago.  

946 – The number of closed houses, the second-most for the quarter since 2007, although also a 29% decrease from the unprecedented high sales volume of the first quarter of 2021.  

395 – the number of closed condos, the second-highest figure for the quarter since 2006.  

101.2% The percent of the list price houses sold for on average, 2.5% higher than the same time last year and the fourth-straight quarter where the average close-to-list price ratio was over 100%. Condo buyers paid on average 100% of the asking price, the highest close-to-list price ratio for condos for a quarter in the past two decades.  

85 – The average cumulative days on market for closed houses, 26% fewer days than a year ago. The average for condos closings was 74 days, 38% fewer days than the first quarter of 2021.  

$1.45M - The average house sales price for the quarter, up 8% from the first quarter of last year. The average condo sale price increased to $500K, the highest it’s been in at least the past two decades.